(CRISIS --- RESPONSE --- TRANSITION)
All frameworks are based on the understanding gathered by Mr. Sudhir Shetty from authoritative published literatures on these diverse subjects but simplified here only for the sake of presenting the complex ideas to the audience on our website. This is a work in progress and we invite other scholars to help us improve these frameworks to further the objectives of GCR. Very soon these frameworks will be accompanied by detailed blogs & references justifying the rationale behind each of them. In the meantime the readers are requested to do their own due diligence before accepting claims or arguments they come across on our platform.
I.SNAPSHOT C-R-T FRAMEWORKS
II.GLOBAL CRISIS DEFINED (GCD)
A Global Catastrophic Risks(GCR) is a hypothetical future event that could damage human well-being on a global scale, even endangering or destroying modern civilization. An event that could cause human extinction or permanently and drastically curtail humanity's potential is known as an existential risk.
GCRs could be the result of Natural as well as Anthropogenic causes. They are both capable of causing the Twin Risks to life on Earth (especially to Humanity )
1. Societal Collapse (Irreversible)
2. Mass Extinction
Thus, the GCD framework has limited the definition of Global Crisis (GC) to only certain category of Global Catastrophic Risks (GCRs) resulting from anthropogenic causes leading to Collapse & Mass Extinction.
GC is primarily concerned with Anthropogenic GCRs, namely:
a. Overshoot : Sink (Pollution) & Source (Scarcity) related Risks
b. Complexity : High Complexity & Low Resilient Critical Infrastructures Risks
c.Tech-Risks : Dual-Use run-away technologies risk multipliers
III.A.GLOBAL CRISIS (GC) FRAMEWORK
The Global Crisis (GC) is the conceptual framework identifies
GROWTH-ISM - (Driven by Neo-liberal Capitalism, Linear & Extractive Economy & the Myth of absolute “De-coupling”) (as the Key Driver)
HUMAN & MATERIAL CENTRED - (‘Good-Life’ Goals guiding individual actions) (as the Root Cause )
that are promotes human systems capable of triggering events leading to
Twin Existential Risks:
Societal Collapse: The Loss of Societal Complexity characterized by radical global economic contraction on account disruption of Critical Infrastructures upholding the hyper-connected Modern Techno Industrial (MTI) society.
Biospheric Collapse: The Biosphere or productive eco-systems that sustains all life on earth are completely disrupted and dysfunctional bringing almost all life on Earth to a stand still.
That can ultimately lead to the
End of this Civilization (Unsustainable MTI Society) may be paving the way for alternative local futures
Mass Extinction i.e. Colossal Die-offs & Die-backs
III. B. HUMANITY’S SUSTAINABILITY CHALLENGE
The Sustainability Challenge framework is an extremely simplified visual representation of the most challenging predicament & problem facing humanity:
If at all humanity somehow manages to muster the necessary global political will (to over the predicament) by agreeing to implement the Strong Sustainability Measures i.e. Controlled & Voluntary Collapse then:
“How do we radically reduce Global Throughput (TP) (i.e. material & energy footprint of humanity) and still sustain current population levels?“
(Population at current size assuming no uncontrolled collapse & die-offs take place)
III. C. LIMITS TO GROWTH & OVERSHOOT
Any reference to GDP growth actually describes the exponential rise of the five processes of global economy namely:
which cumulatively (in material & energy terms) can also refer to economic throughput (TP)
TP > the replenishment rate of Renewable Resources (RR) or the Bio-capacity
TP > the depletion rate of the Non-renewable Resources (NRR) &
TP > the absorption rate of the Ecosystems (or assimilation capacity)
then it leads to OVERSHOOT OR BIOSPHERIC COLLAPSE
To avoid Overshoot the TP of the global economy must always within the ‘safe limits’ (sustainability limits) as shown in graph (B)
IV. GLOBAL CRISIS RESPONSE (GCR) FRAMEWORK
The GCR Framework acknowledges that Global Crisis (GC) is not just a problem confronting humanity but it represents more like a Predicament (a Moral Choice). The potential global responses to this predicament are:
Business as Usual (BAU) ----- Current Global Consensus & Strategy
Weak Sustainability (WS) measures ---- Gradualists & Techno-fixes
Strong Sustainability (SS) measures ---- Radicalists
Each of these choices will lead humanity towards a trajectory ranging from
Near term Societal Collapse – Mass Extinction
Delayed Collapse & Mass Extinction
Controlled Collapse, Deep Adaptations, Alternative local Futures
GCR framework helps ordinary citizens and activists alike to differentiate, evaluate the utility of solutions, policy alternatives and measures in light of their potential to avert the ultimate existential risks to humanity.
V.A. PARADIGM SHIFT (PS) FRAMEWORK
The GC and the GCR framework have helped us understand with a simplified representation of the complex and pervasive PROBLEM (Existential Risks) and its SOLUTION (Strong Sustainability Measures)
Our Civilization is witnessing a tectonic shift (un-natural) from a long comfortable 11000 year period (HOLOCENE : Abundance & Climate Stability) that allowed exponential growth in Human Population & Consumption (Throughput) towards a new phase (ANTHROPOCENE-Scarcity & Climate Disruptions)
The central thesis behind PARADIGM SHIFT (PS) framework is that Modern Techno Industrial (MTI) society relies heavily on Complex, low resilient, Centralized critical infrastructures/ key-stone hubs.
The PS framework triggered aspires to prefigure a transition road-map that develops new human systems that rely on infrastructure more adapted to Anthropocene-Scarcity conditions, hence Less Complex, more decentralized and resilient.