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Exploring the Kelly Criterion in Sports Betting: Simple and Understandable

The Kelly Criterion in sports betting is one of the strategies many players use today. It's a formula that brings significant benefits when betting on football. Surely, many people still don't fully understand this betting formula. Let's follow to delve into the content below in the football odds analysis section to understand this topic thoroughly.

What is the Kelly Criterion in Sports Betting?

The Kelly Criterion is a relatively simple mathematical equation widely applied in conjunction with football odds analysis. Its purpose is to determine the percentage of your betting money. This is to place bets in any specific case, assuming you have an advantage. The goal of the formula is to accurately determine the amount of money to bet on each betting option. It also helps you easily calculate the betting capital to continue playing.

Additionally, the Kelly formula is also understood as a simple concept. It advises not to risk everything and not to bet all in one big gamble. Carefully consider the amount of money you wager each time to avoid losing everything in one go. John Kelly devised this equation to analyze telephone signals over long distances. However, he realized that this formula could also be applied to investment and wealth creation.

Finally, the Kelly Criterion in sports betting is based on situations where the bettor has an advantage. The formula requires certain betting odds to easily calculate your optimal bet. This is a stable percentage in your total betting capital. As your wealth increases, the ratio remains the same. However, the amount of money the player bets will increase.

Advantages and Disadvantages of the Kelly Criterion in Sports Betting

To help you understand the Kelly Criterion in sports betting better, here are some prominent advantages and disadvantages of this formula.


- The Kelly Criterion helps players manage their betting capital. This makes it easier for you to make decisions in games.

- It calculates the amount of money needed to bet reasonably based on the win-loss percentage and the odds offered by bookmaker review. This allows for accurate predictions and minimizes risks.

- The Kelly formula helps players limit losses to a minimum.

- One of the outstanding advantages is providing a broader view of the betting match.

- Bettors can easily analyze data and devise the most reasonable betting strategies.


- One downside of applying the Kelly formula in sports betting is that it may be prone to errors and not 100% accurate. Additionally, bettors will need to calculate the winning percentage for each bet based on the bookmakers' odds. However, overall, the Kelly formula still brings many advantages to players.

Applying the Kelly Criterion in Sports Betting

Read more: what are define bookmaker? How do they operate?

According to football odds analysis experience, the Kelly Criterion is used to manage capital in some games, especially in football betting. Currently, the Kelly formula in football betting is used as follows:

Suppose the total amount you bet is $100.

The winning odds for team A are 60%.

The odds for team A are 1.93.

Applying the Kelly Criterion in sports betting, we have the calculation method as follows: Betting odds = ((((1.93 - 60%) - 1) / (1.93 - 1)) * 100 = 16.99%.

In case the calculated betting odds are negative, it means that the winning odds of this match are not high. At this point, players should bet on the other team or refrain from betting on this match.

Kelly Criterion Versions

During its use and development, the Kelly Criterion has had various versions with certain features.

Full Kelly:

The Full Kelly formula provides a fairly bold strategy for players. Moreover, players may be advised to bet up to 50% of their bankroll. This helps bettors win quickly but also lose quickly. The betting ratio is = overlay / (odds - 1).

Fractional Kelly:

Online sports bettors can bet a certain portion of their bankroll. The amount that can be bet is 50% (Half Kelly), 25% (Quarter Kelly), or even any portion of the bankroll the player desires. During betting, as the percentage of bankroll decreases in fractional Kelly, players may get better results compared to Full Kelly.

The Constant Kelly:

This method is similar to the Full Kelly formula. However, instead of introducing many different percentage ratios, it shows a fixed percentage ratio. For example, instead of showing a 15% decrease or improvement in the bankroll ratio, it recommends betting 15% of a fixed amount.

Tips for Using the Kelly Criterion in Sports Betting

In sports betting, it is recommended not to bet more than 15% of the money in your account. If players want to bet more than that, they should be absolutely sure about the match result. Additionally, it's essential to learn and listen from experts if you want to achieve results.

Furthermore, players need to have a deep understanding of the betting discipline they love. This will allow them to easily calculate the winning probability according to the Kelly formula. Moreover, you should equip yourself with a careful capital management strategy. This will help players make accurate predictions and bring in large sums of money when betting.

Above, the football odds analysis website – wintips shares all the detailed information about the Kelly Criterion in sports betting. Surely, everyone has equipped themselves with some useful and necessary information. Hopefully, you will have enjoyable and exciting football betting experiences. Wishing players lots of luck and huge victories.


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